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GDP indicator

The development in gross domestic product (GDP) reflects the economic growth in the Danish economy. 

GDP and a number of other indicators of the economic development are published in several versions of the national accounts. National accounts are continuously revised to adopt new and more detailed information, the GDP growth rate cannot be classified as final until very detailed information has been incorporated from a wide range of sources. This takes place three years after the end of the reference year.

The GDP indicator (GDP45) is the earliest estimate of GDP growth and, accordingly, it is the version containing the smallest amount of source data. The GDP indicator is published about 45 days after the end of the quarter, which is approximately 15 days prior to the preliminary full version of the Quarterly National Accounts (QNA60), which is issued about 60 days after the end of the quarter. The QNA60 is succeeded by a revised version (QNA90), which is published about 90 days after the end of the quarter. Subsequently, GDP growth is continuously adjusted in line with a regular revision cycle where the last revision is carried out three years after the end of the year. This final calculation contains the most accurate sources.

 

Calculation of the GDP indicator 

The GDP indicator provides a flash estimate of the quarterly growth in the seasonally adjusted real GDP for the most recently closed quarter and is based on indicators for the gross value added (GVA) from the production side of the Danish economy. 

The calculation of the indicator is generally based on sources and methods corresponding to the QNA60, however variations between the two calculations do exist for instance when it is necessary to base the indicator on fewer data and other sources and methods. Attempts have been made to reduce variations of this kind by using alternative data and econometric estimates. As mentioned, the calculation of the indicator involves only GDP from the production side and, consequently, it does not take foreign trade, investments and total expenditure into account. This means that a full harmonisation of approach and application is not possible, which will also be a major source of revisions. 

The output approach is applied since experience has shown that indicators from the production side provide the best estimate for growth within a short time frame.

For a more detailed description of the calculation of the GDP indicator, please refer to the memo Documentation of the GDP indicator

 

Revision and uncertainty 

Calculation of the GDP indicator differs from the calculation of the national accounts, which gives rise to revisions and diminishes accuracy compared to the QNA60 or QNA90. Since the GDP45 is a fairly new measure in a Danish context, it is still too early to measure the exact level of accuracy, though it is being monitored continuously. 

A revision of the growth from the GDP indicator to the national accounts can be carried out in two ways. The revision may involve revisions in total production as a result of the increased data volumes for production subsequently be-coming available. A revision may also take place when the estimate of intermediate consumption is adjusted in con-nection with the balancing of the supply and use in the economy. 

Statistics Denmark prepared the GDP indicator in 2016. Test calculations were completed on the basis of constructed data for the third quarter 2014 up to and including the fourth quarter 2015. The recreation of the relevant source material for these quarters has been difficult, which is why extra reservations must be made on these (indicated with blue in the figure). Calculations for all quarters in 2016 have been made with the relevant data sets. The first publica-tion was the third quarter of 2016.

The first results from the calculation of the GDP indicator and the National Accounts’ first GDP estimate appear in the figure below. 

 

Real GDP growth

Real GDP growth

The growth in GDP is revised again approximately 90 days after the end of the quarter and then several times until the final time about three years after the end of the year during the calculation of final annual figures.

 

Most recent publications (only available in danish)

BNP har indhentet noget af det tabte

13. november 2020

BNP har indhentet noget af det tabte

BNP-indikatoren peger på en sæsonkorrigeret realvækst på 4,9 pct. i tredje kvartal 2020 sammenlignet med andet kvartal. Det er i sig selv rekordhøj kvartalsvækst, men skal ses i lyset af det store fald i første halvår.

Tabeller i Statistikbanken om 'Nøgletal, kvartalsvist nationalregnskab'


Historisk stort fald i BNP

14. august 2020

Historisk stort fald i BNP

BNP-indikatoren peger på et fald i det sæsonkorrigerede reale BNP på hele 7,4 pct. i andet kvartal sammenlignet med første kvartal. Det vil være det klart største fald siden første opgørelse af kvartalsvis nationalregnskab.

Tabeller i Statistikbanken om 'Nøgletal, kvartalsvist nationalregnskab'


1,9 pct. fald i BNP-indikatoren

15. maj 2020

1,9 pct. fald i BNP-indikatoren

BNP-indikatoren peger på et fald i det sæsonkorrigerede reale BNP på 1,9 pct. i første kvartal 2020 sammenlignet med fjerde kvartal 2019. Dermed er dansk økonomi tydeligt påvirket af effekterne af Covid-19.

Tabeller i Statistikbanken om 'Nøgletal, kvartalsvist nationalregnskab'


BNP voksede med 0,3 pct. i fjerde kvartal

14. februar 2020

BNP voksede med 0,3 pct. i fjerde kvartal

BNP-indikatoren peger på en sæsonkorrigeret realvækst på 0,3 pct. i fjerde kvartal sammenlignet med tredje kvartal 2019. Fremgangen på 0,3 pct. er lidt under den gennemsnitlige vækst i de sidste årtier.

Tabeller i Statistikbanken om 'Nøgletal, kvartalsvist nationalregnskab'


BNP-vækst dæmpes lidt i tredje kvartal

14. november 2019

BNP-vækst dæmpes lidt i tredje kvartal

BNP-indikatoren peger på en sæsonkorrigeret realvækst på 0,3 pct. i tredje kvartal sammenlignet med andet kvartal 2019. Samtidig viser beskæftigelsesindikatoren en vækst i den samlede beskæftigelse på 0,2 pct.

Tabeller i Statistikbanken om 'Nøgletal, kvartalsvist nationalregnskab'


BNP voksede med 0,8 pct. i andet kvartal 2019

14. august 2019

BNP voksede med 0,8 pct. i andet kvartal 2019

BNP-indikatoren peger på en sæsonkorrigeret realvækst på 0,8 pct. i andet kvartal sammenlignet med første kvartal 2019. En ny beskæftigelsesindikator viser en vækst i den samlede beskæftigelse på 0,2 pct. i samme periode.

Tabeller i Statistikbanken om 'Nøgletal, kvartalsvist nationalregnskab'


0,3 pct. vækst i BNP-indikatoren

15. maj 2019

0,3 pct. vækst i BNP-indikatoren

BNP-indikatoren peger på en sæsonkorrigeret realvækst på 0,3 pct. i første kvartal 2019 sammenlignet med fjerde kvartal 2018. Fremgangen i økonomien synes dermed at fortsætte, om end mere afdæmpet end foregående kvartal.

Tabeller i Statistikbanken om 'Nøgletal, kvartalsvist nationalregnskab'


BNP-indikatoren vokser med 0,8 pct. i fjerde kvartal

14. februar 2019

BNP-indikatoren vokser med 0,8 pct. i fjerde kvartal

BNP-indikatoren peger på en sæsonkorrigeret realvækst på 0,8 pct. i fjerde kvartal 2018 sammenlignet med tredje kvartal 2018. Især industri og transport bidrager positivt til væksten.

Tabeller i Statistikbanken om 'Nøgletal, kvartalsvist nationalregnskab'


BNP vokser med 0,7 pct. i tredje kvartal

14. november 2018

BNP vokser med 0,7 pct. i tredje kvartal

BNP-indikatoren peger på en sæsonkorrigeret realvækst på 0,7 pct. i tredje kvartal 2018 sammenlignet med andet kvartal 2018. Fremgangen i BNP siden 2013 ser dermed ud til at fortsætte.

Tabeller i Statistikbanken om 'Nøgletal, kvartalsvist nationalregnskab'


Fortsat afdæmpet BNP-vækst

14. august 2018

Fortsat afdæmpet BNP-vækst

BNP-indikatoren peger på en sæsonkorrigeret realvækst på 0,3 pct. i andet kvartal 2018 sammenlignet med første kvartal 2018. Den afdæmpede fremgang fra første kvartal ser dermed ud til at fortsætte.

Tabeller i Statistikbanken om 'Nøgletal, kvartalsvist nationalregnskab'


 

Documentation

Get an overview of the purpose, content and quality of the indicator. Here you can find information on which sources the indicator is based on and what it contains.