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Simon B. Halifax
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The Tendency survey for manufacturing industries is a qualitative assessment on past three month's developments and next three month's expected developments . The survey assesses developments within production, employment, stock of orders, stock of finished products, capacity utilization, investment plans, limits to production, and others. As of October 2021 the investment plans of the industry has been included in the tendency survey.
The monthly tendency survey provides a quick and up-to-date overview of actual conditions and expectations within the manufacturing industries.
The survey was established in 4th quarter of 1963. The survey is directly connected to and defined by the Business and Consumer Survey joint harmonized program as managed by the Directorate-Generale for Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission. Within same programme is also carried out monthly tendency surveys on Retail Trade, Construction, Services and Consumer expectations as well as the biannual survey on Manufacturing Industry Investments.
The survey is a qualitative assessment on developments over the past three months and expected developments over the next three month, based on various variables: production, employment, new orders, new export orders, competitive position on domestic market, competitive position on foreign market, selling prices, current overall order books, current export order books, current stock of finished products, current stock of raw materials, production capacity, capacity utilization, production assured by current overall order books (in month) and limits to production.
Prior to July 2021 a question on investment plans was included but has been removed as the general investment plans questionnaire now is incorporated in the tendency survey.
The variables marked in bold are posed each month in the monthly questionnaire while the others in italic are only posed the first month of each quarter (January, April, July and October) in an extended questionnaire.
The questionnaire is divided in sections.
In first section is asked about the development over the past 3 month regarding production, employment, new orders, new export orders, competitive position on domestic market, competitive position on foreign market, and selling prices. For each question there are three answer options: Decrease/deteriorate; Remain unchanged; Increase/improve.
In second section is asked similar about the expected development over the next three month, including the survey month, regarding the same above mentioned indicators.
In third section is asked about current overall orderbooks, current export orderbooks, current stock of finished products, current stock of raw materials, production capacity, investment plans, capacity utilization (in percentage), production assured by current overall orderbooks (in month) and limits to production. For questions on stock is optionally ticked: Too small; Adequate; Too large or No stock. For questions on orderbooks is optionally ticked: not sufficient; sufficient or more than sufficient. Limits to production is assessed by ticking one or more options: insufficient demand; shortage of labour force; shortage of material and/or equipment; financial constraints; other factors or by ticking no limitations.
In the forth section which is only included in April and October is asked about investment plans. In April the questions are for both current year and last year concerning Overall investment, Machinery and equipment, Land, building and infrastructure and Intangibles. The answers can be Increased, Remain unchanged, and Decreased. In October the questions are for both current year and next year concerning Overall investment as above, and also the purpose of investments this year and next year. Here a selection of four options are available where one or more can be ticked off: Replacement, Extensions, Rationalization and Other. Furthermore is a question regarding the conditions influencing the investments with four options for ticking off as above: Demand, Financial resources or expected profit, Technical factors and Other factors.
The industries in the survey is defined by DB07, which is the Danish industrial classification system similar to the international NACE rev. 2 system.
The target population includes enterprises within main group C Manufacturing and also B Mining and quarrying
Statistical concepts and definitions
Industry: The line of businesses that manufactures goods. The Business Tendency Survey also comprises Mining and quarrying, however excluded oil and gas extraction.
Business Tendency Survey: Business Tendency Survey. Compared to traditional statistical surveys, which only cover one or a few related variables from one area of the economy, business surveys collect information about a wide range of variables selected for their ability, when analysed together, to give an overall picture of a sector of the economy. The surveys include questions such as the volume of production, order books, order inflow, stocks of finished goods, exports, employment and prices. The range of information covered by business surveys also goes beyond variables normally captured by classical statistics. Qualitative information may be collected for variables, which are difficult or impossible to measure by conventional methods such as: capacity utilisation, production bottlenecks and views on the overall economic situation.
Confidence Indicator: An indicator for the present position in the business cycle. The marked economy evolves in cycles between boom, decrease, recession and upswing.
Composite Confidence Indicator: Composite indicators are calculated as the simple arithmetic average of the (seasonally adjusted if possible) balances of answers to specific questions chosen from the full set of questions in the survey. In the case of Retail Trade survey the composite indicator reflects the average of the three indicators on Sales over the past three month, the present Volume of stock and Sales expectations over the next three months.
Balance: Balances are the difference between positive and negative answering options, measured as percentage points of total answers. In particular, if a question has three alternative options, “positive” (“up”, “more”, “more than sufficient”, “good”, “too large”, “increase”, “improve”, etc.), “neutral” (“unchanged”, “as much”, “sufficient”, “satisfactory”, “adequate”, etc.) and “negative” (“down”, “less”, “not sufficient”, “too small”, “decline”, etc.), and if P, E and M (with P+E+M=100) denote the percentages of respondents having chosen respectively the option positive, neutral, and negative, the balance is calculated as B = P - M.
The sample is based on Kind of Activity Units (KAU's) as the observation units. A KAU is a group of local units with identical activity code belonging to the same enterprise, which is identified by "CVR-number" from the Central Business Register (the Danish Administrative Business Register)
The universe population includes enterprises within main group C Manufacturing, covering industry groups 10 to 33 in Danish classification system DB07, almost identical to the international NACE rev. 2 system. Also B Mining and quarrying , excluded oil extraction, is covered. The target population consists of about 4700 enterprises with mail activity within manufacturing industries and with 20 or more employees on annual basis.
Not relevant for these statistics.
Unit of measure
Percentages, months and Balances.
The reference point is the first day of the survey month. Questions are asked concerning the past three month and the coming three month.
Frequency of dissemination
Legal acts and other agreements
The survey is voluntary, and therefore not subject to any Danish legal act. The survey is conducted according to agreement with the EU Commission. The legal framework of the survey is "The Joint Harmonized European Union Program on Business and Consumer Surveys" approved by the European Commission on 12 July 2006 COM (206)379.
Cost and burden
The survey is voluntary, therefore no burden as such. If one decides to participate the questionnaire is supposed to only take a minute to complete.
Enterprises with less than 20 employees are not included in the survey sample.
Joint reporting is accepted if same organization includes several companies representing unique legal units, but within same industry-class.
Information about the statistics here. The statistics is part of the The Joint EC Business and Consumer Surveys programme managed by Directorate-Generale for Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN) please refer to their Guidelines.