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Statistical presentation

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Population and Education, Social Statistics
Annika Klintefelt
+45 39 17 36 78

akf@dst.dk

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Population Projections

Statistics Denmark makes an annual population projection for Denmark in cooperation with the research institution DREAM. From a given set of conditions and assumptions Denmark´s future population is calculated and broken down by gender, age and ancestry.

Based on the projection for the entire country Statistics Denmark makes a regional projection which can be broken down by gender, age, province and municipality. The projection by provinces and municipalities are not broken down by ancestry.

As a part of the projection, results are also available regarding changes in population concerning live births, deaths, immigration and emigration

Data description

Every year in February Statistics Denmark provides DREAM with updated data regarding immigration, emigration, live births, deaths and change in citizenship, which can be broken down by gender, age and ancestry. It is then DREAM who run the actual projection model for the whole of Denmark. Statistics Denmark and DREAM discuss the assumptions in the model regarding migration, fertility and mortality in order to assess whether changes in the methodology are necessary. When the model is declared ready, DREAM provides Statistics Denmark with data. These data are both the foundation for the published statistics for the projection for the entire country as well as important background data for the regional models, which Statistics Denmark run.

The projection for the entire country can be broken down by gender (men and women), age (single age levels from 0 to 109), ancestry (Danish origin, immigrants, descendants) and origin (Denmark, Western, non-Western) and year (2021-2060). The year 2022 contains actual population 1 January 2022. The years 2023-2060 are projected years referring to 01 January in the year.

The projection for provinces can be broken down by gender (men and women), age (single age levels from 0 to 99 and 100+), province (11 groups) and year (2022-2045).

The projection for municipalities can be broken down by gender (men and women), age (single age levels from 0 to 99 and 100+), municipality (98 groups) and year (2022-2045).

In 2015 Statistics Denmark launched a closer study of the population projection at local and regional level. The result of this work has led to some adjustments of the regional population projections. These adjustments has lead to a better population projection at regional level. For further information in Danish see Statistics Denmark

Classification system

The projections can be broken down geographically by Denmark, regions (5), provinces (11) and municipalities (98). The relation between the various geographic units can be seen here.

Sector coverage

Not relevant for these statistics.

Statistical concepts and definitions

Ancestry: In ancestry a person can be categorized as Danish origin, immigrant or descendant. A person has Danish origin if he or she has at least one parent who is both born in Denmark and has Danish citizenship. Neither immigrants nor descendants have that. The difference between the two is that descendants are born in Denmark while immigrants are born abroad.

Immigration: In the projection immigration only comprises persons who immigrate to Denmark during the year and who is still in the Danish population by the end of the year.

Country of origin: In the projection country of origin comprises the categories Denmark, Western countries and non-Western countries. Western countries include all 28 EU countries plus Andorra, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Monaco, Norway, San Marino, Switzerland, The Vatican, Canada, USA, Australia and New Zealand. Non-Western countries include all other countries.

Emigration: In the projection emigration only comprises persons who leave Denmark during the year and who haven´t returned to Denmark by the end of the year.

Statistical unit

Persons.

Statistical population

The Danish population 01 January in all projected years.

Reference area

There are three projections covering Denmark, 11 provinces and 98 municipalities respectively.

Time coverage

A new projection is made every year. Each projection is a new statistic.

Base period

The actual population 1 January 2022 is the foundation (or jump-off population) for the projections.

Unit of measure

Persons.

Reference period

The reference period for the 2022 projection is every single year in the projection period 2021-2060. Regarding the stock population the reference date is 1 January, while live births, deaths, immigration and emigration are flows during the year.

Frequency of dissemination

Annually.

Legal acts and other agreements

Population data are used as a foundation for the projections. The population data are based on the Danish CPR system, which can be used for statistical purposes in accordance with "Lov om Danmarks Statistik §6 (jf. lovbekendtgørelse nr. 599 af 22. juni 2000)".

Cost and burden

These statistics are based on administrative data. There is thus no direct response burden in relation to the compilation of these statistics.

Comment

DREAM's website.

Statistics Denmark's website