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Population and Education, Social Statistics
Annika Klintefelt
+45 39 17 36 78

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Population Projections

Each projection is a new set of statistics and must not be used for time series together with previous projections.

With the projection 2010, Statistics Denmark made the projection for all of Denmark for the first time in collaboration with DREAM, and in connection with this, a switch was made to a new projection model based on DREAM’s previous model.

Comparability - geographical

The projections for provinces and municipalities are made in the same way for all provinces and municipalities, and for that reason, the results are comparable.

Eurostat also makes population projections for all EU countries, including Denmark. The results of two different projections will always vary, since there are practically endless ways to make the assumptions in the projections. This is why the results from Eurostat’s projection are different from those of Statistics Denmark.

Comparability over time

If you compare results of projections from different years, you must pay attention to the fact that the assumptions change from one year to the next. You can always consider the latest projection to be the most up-to-date.

In 2015-2016, a thorough review was completed of the population projection at municipal and regional level. As a result of this work, a number of adjustments were made of the basis for the municipal population projection.

Coherence - cross domain

In the projections, the definitions of the concepts immigration and emigration differ from those of other statistics. In the projections, immigration includes persons who were not in Denmark at the beginning of the year, who immigrated during the year and were in Denmark by the end of the year. In the projections, emigration includes persons who were in Denmark at the beginning of the year, who emigrated during the year and had not returned to Denmark by the end of the year. In Statistics Denmark’s published figures for immigration and emigration, all movements are counted. Including e.g. immigrants who emigrated before the end of the year.

Since the projection’s population delimitation is made by year of birth and year of event, the age of people who died and net immigrated in the population projection is stated as at the end of the year and not as their age at the time of the event.

In the projection, we project the population from one turn of the year to the next. As a result, people moving several times in a year contribute with only one move or no move if they live in the same municipality at the beginning and at the end of the year. This also applies to immigration and emigration.

Coherence - internal

The projections for the whole country, provinces and municipalities are in fact three different projections. However, the aim is to ensure coherence between the three of them, as the projections for provinces and municipalities are adjusted to the projection for the whole country.

Due to rounding, however, there are a few minor differences.