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Population and Education, Social Statistics
Annika Klintefelt
+45 39 17 36 78

akf@dst.dk

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Population Projections

The projection for the entire country is made in cooperation with DREAM and constitute the population foundation for DREAM´s economic projections.

The projection broken down by municipalities are also used extensively by municipalities and often forms the basis for the municipalities' own projections. These local projections often include a number of local factors, which are not included in DST’s projection. DST’s projection also has great interest in local media across the country.

User Needs

Municipalities, regions, ministries, organizations, research institutions, private enterprises, news media and individuals are among the users of the population projections.

The projection for the entire country is made in cooperation with DREAM. DREAM uses the results themselves as the population input to their entire system of models. The final purpose for DREAMs models is to predict the long term development in the public finances

A number of companies offer local projections example COWI and KMD. DST’s results from the municipal projections often form the basis for the municipalities own models, which some municipalities use to make projections with other scenarios. Some municipalities have expressed a wish to have more detailed projections than the municipality level, and they have asked Statistics Denmark to do that. However Statistics Denmark has estimated that the uncertainty would be too high for these kinds of projections. It is primarily uncertainty regarding internal migration which is the problem.

There are also users, who have asked about the possibility to have the projections by municipality broken down by ancestry. Due to the projections' demands for very detailed data, Statistics Denmark has estimated that most municipalities have too small immigrant and descendant populations to make such a breakdown possible. And Statistics Denmark do not make special projections for single municipalities, since the projections are a coherent system, where the projections for all the municipalities are done in one step, and where the totals are adjusted to the totals for the national projection.

User Satisfaction

No collection of information about user satisfaction is currently taking place regarding the projections.

In 2015 Statistics Denmark received two inquiries from municipalities, which argued that the projection of the municipalities was very inaccurate relative to the actual development, and that this had been going on for several years. Although there may exist significant differences between the projected and the actual population development, Statistics Denmark initiated a closer inspection of the population projection at local and regional level.

Data completeness rate

Not relevant for these statistics.