Contact infoNational Accounts, Economic Statistics
Peter Rørmose Jensen
+45 39 17 38 62
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Economic multipliers measure the effect on e.g. production, income or employment at a detailed industry level, following a 1 million DKK "shock" to final use in an industry or in a final use category. Multipliers are not statistics in the traditional sense but may be termed more correctly as model calculations. As it is not entirely uncomplicated to calculate multipliers, a collection of the most used multipliers are made available for download this way. The statistics is a resume - now in electronic form - of the publication Danish input-output tables and analyses, that was published annually in a period up until 2011.
The tables contain a variety of multipliers, which can be considered a tool for assessing the impact of various "shocks" on demand. The tables are divided into three groups, production multipliers, employment multipliers and input multipliers. Each of these three groups is further subdivided into whether it is a shock to the demand in a particular industry or in a specific final use. In each table, it is also possible to further choose which type of multiplier you want to work with or what kind of employment you find most interesting. The multipliers are used when, for example, one wants to assess the effects of a possible shock to the demand. By multiplying a multiplier with the size of the shock, one can assess what effects it will have on production, employment, etc.
The multiplier tables are based on already published data from Statistics Denmark, so the primary contribution that comes from these statistics is the statistical treatment of the basic material, which is done as a service for the users. Treatment is most easily done with software dedicated to the task and consists in working with data in matrix format and the use of certain matrix formulas picked up from the literature. One of the most important elements of the calculations is the compilation of the inverted matrix of inputs into the production - the so-called Leontief inverse matrix.
The multiplier tables are relevant for all those who would like to be able to calculate a general estimate of the effects on variables such as production, employment, imports etc.. when demand increases in an industry or one final use. It is an obvious choice for people who need to prepare and assess various policy initiatives who can use the multipliers to get an initial estimate of policy implications for key economic variables.
The multiplier tables are ready to use and requires no prior knowledge of input-output modeling.
Accuracy and reliability
The multipliers are the result of model calculations, which are based on national accounting statistics and input-output tables. In each section, polls and adjustments are made under assumptions, which together mean that the calculation process builds some uncertainty about the figures. At the most detailed level, therefore, one can not necessarily expect the results to be accurate representations of reality. Conclusions from the tables should be drawn with some caution, taking account of the uncertainties that may arise in the various stages of the process.
Timeliness and punctuality
The multipliers that build upon the national accounts input-output tables are published simultaneously with the final version of the national accounts approximately 34 months after the end of the reference year. As from June 2020 the statistics will be published with a lag of 30 moths only. Despite the fact that the numbers are 30-34 month old when published it is assessed that the degree of actuality in the numbers is quite high. The multipliers represent economic structures that changes quite slowly and therefore the numbers do not need to be as new and recent as numbers representing the state of the market economy.
The input-output tables that make up the source for the multiplier statistics are fully coherent with the national accounts which makes the multipliers coherent as well. The classification of industries and final use categories are concurrent. The multipliers are published for the most recent final year of the national accounts because multipliers in current prices are not comparable over time. To the extent that similar multipliers are calculated in other countries a high degree of comparability can be expected.
Accessibility and clarity
The statistics is published in the Statbank