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Consumer Expectations Survey

The purpose of the survey is to analyze the consumer climate through questions about the economic situation as perceived by consumers at a given time concerning both the general economic situation in Denmark and the financial situation of the family. The main results are coordinated in the so-called consumer confidence indicator. The Danish surveys have been conducted since 1974. From 1996 data is collected in all 12 months of the year.

Statistical presentation

Consumer monthly questions for: financial situation, general economic situation, price trends, unemployment, major purchases and savings. Consumer quarterly questions for: intention to buy a car, purchase or build a home, home improvements.

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Statistical processing

This survey are sample surveys, where a representative sample of persons 16-74 years are asked among other things about the consumer expectations. The results are corrected from the effects of non-sampling and non-response and then enumerated so that the figures can directly be classed with the population of adult persons and families in Denmark. Data are validated using logical validation rules. A seasonal pattern could not be identified in the series and no seasonal adjustment was undertaken.

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Relevance

The most important user is the European Commission for Economy and Finances (ECFIN), which receives detailed tables for all questions and publishes seasonally adjusted consumer confidence indicators for all EU member states. The figures are also of great interest to the news media.

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Accuracy and reliability

As the results are based on a sample survey, they are subject to a certain degree of statistical uncertainty. This depends on both the size of the sample and the number of completed interviews, which vary from survey to survey. With a sample of approximately 1,500 persons and a response rate of about 65%, which has normally been achieved in the last few years, the statistical uncertainty is in 95 pct. of the cases estimated ranged within +/- 3 percentage points. A change in an indicator should be greater than 5 percentage points to indicate a significant change.

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Timeliness and punctuality

There is no difference between planned and actual release time.

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Comparability

All questions shown in section 1.1 were included in the omnibus surveys since 1974, and the new figures can immediately be compared with previously published statistics.

As far as net figures and consumer confidence indicator are concerned, they are available in the Statbank as far back as October 1974. But because of changes in the calculation method, direct data comparability is only possible from 2007.

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Accessibility and clarity

The results are published in News from Statistics Denmark and Statbank Denmark. Further, there is a subject page for Consumer Expectations.

After each survey, Statistics Denmark submits detailed tables giving a number of background variables as well as the consumer confidence indicator and net figures to the European Commission, which publishes monthly both seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted indicator and the net figures for each members state (incl. Denmark), at European Commission database: European Commission database. The access to the more detailed data and Micro-data can be granted through Statistics Denmark's agreement for researchers.

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