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Population and Education, Social Statistics
Annika Klintefelt
+45 23 31 14 33

akf@dst.dk

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Population Projections

The projections for municipalities are widely used by the municipalities, and they create the basis for the municipalities’ own projections, which often incorporate a number of local factors that are not part of Statistics Denmark’s projections. The municipalities may use the projections in their planning of institutions, schools and the need for nursing homes in the future. Local media across the country take great interest in Statistics Denmark’s projection.

User Needs

Municipalities, regions, ministries, professional and industrial bodies, research establishments and private businesses as well as news media such as newspapers, radio and television and private individuals are some of the users of the population projections.

The projection for the whole of Denmark is made in collaboration with DREAM, which uses the projections as key input in their combined model system. The purpose of DREAM’s full model system is to be able to offer an opinion on the long-term development in public finances. A number of businesses offer to work out local projections, e.g. COWI and KMD. Statistics Denmark’s results from the municipal projections are incorporated as a basis in their own model, which some municipalities apply to get projections with other scenarios.

Some municipalities want projections at a more detailed level than the municipal level, and Statistics Denmark has been requested to make this type of projections as special data runs. However, Statistics Denmark has estimated that the uncertainty of sub-municipal projections will be too high for Statistics Denmark to offer them. It is the uncertainty regarding in-migration and out-migration in particular that is estimated as too high.

There are also users who would like municipal projections to be disaggregated by groups of ancestry. Due to the extensive requirements to very detailed background data, however, Statistics Denmark estimates that the vast majority of municipalities do not have enough immigrants and descendants for this to be doable. Nor does Statistics Denmark make special projections for individual municipalities, as the projections are indeed a coherent system in which the projection for all municipalities is run simultaneously, and where they are balanced against the levels from the country projection.

User Satisfaction

In 2015, Statistics Denmark received two requests from municipalities that argued that the projections for the municipalities in question were way off compared to the actual development and that this had gone on for years. Even though there may be significant differences between the projected and the actual population development, the requests afforded grounds for Statistics Denmark to reconsider whether there was room for improvement of the basis of the municipal projection. For that reason, Statistics Denmark initiated a thorough review of the population projection at municipal and regional level.

Data completeness rate

Not relevant for these statistics.