0 Administrative Information about the Statistical Product


0.1 Name
Population projections for Denmark

0.2 Subject Area
Population and elections

0.3 Responsible Authority, Office, Person, etc.
Population and education.
Thomas Michael Nielsen, tel.: +45 39 17 33 14, e-mail: tmn@dst.dk
Dorthe Larsen, tel.: +45 39 17 33 07, e-mail: dla@dst.dk
Anita Lange, tel.: +45 39 17 33 07, e-mail: anl@dst.dk

0.4 Purpose and History
The purpose of this statistic is to project the population in Denmark by origin, sex and age.

0.5 Users and Application
Users: Local authorities, regions, ministries, organisations, international organisations, research institutions, the media, private enterprises, private individuals.

Application: Public and private planning purposes, research, market analysis, education and public debate.

0.6 Sources
Population Statistics Register.

0.7 Legal Authority to Collect Data
The Act on Statistics Denmark (Lov om Danmarks Statistik), Section 6, cf. Order no. 599 of 22 June 2000.

0.8 Response burden
None.

0.9 EU Regulation
No formal regulation.


1 Contents


1.1 Description of Contents
The population projection presents the size and composition of the population by sex and age, divided into five population groups. The five groups are:
1. Persons with Danish origin
2. Immigrants from Western countries
3. Immigrants from non-Western countries
4. Descendants from Western countries
5. Descendants from non-Western countries.
In addition to this, the movements of the population according to live births, deaths, immigration and emigration are calculated

1.2 Statistical Concepts
Population: Persons with permanent address in Denmark.

Units: Persons.

Variables: Population, live births, deaths, immigration and emigration.

The population is estimated as the number of persons as of 1 January every year.
Live births, deaths, immigration and emigration are estimated as the number of persons during the calendar year.

Statistical objective: The population units are estimated as aggregated data categorised by origin, sex, age and projection year.


2 Time


2.1 Reference Period
The reference period for the population projection is every single year in the projection period (2010-2050)

2.2 Date of Publication
The projection is published annually in the middle of May.

2.3 Punctuality
The News from Statistics Denmark (Nyt fra Danmarks Statistik) article is published in the middle of May. Tables in the statbank (www.statbank.dk) are also updated in the middle of May. The Statistical News (Statistiske Efterretninger) article is published a few weeks later.

2.4 Frequency
Annually


3 Accuracy


3.1 Overall accuracy
Projections are subject to some uncertainty. The uncertainty mainly concerns the proportion of the population which has not been born at the beginning of the projection period. This means that the uncertainty of the projection increases with time as a larger proportion of the population is made up of persons who have not been born at the start of the projection period.

Population: The largest uncertainty attaches to the young age groups, i.e. those who have not been born at the start of the projection period (cf. uncertainty as regards live births). The size of the population in the oldest age groups is also subject to some uncertainty. For the rest of the population the projection is rather reliable.

Live births: The future number of live births is to a considerable extent decided by the presumed development of the fertility. This means that this variable is subject to considerably uncertainty due to the unpredictability of the future development in fertility.

Deaths: This variable is subject to some uncertainty.

Immigration: This variable is subject to considerable uncertainty due to considerable fluctuations and the unpredictability of migrations.

Emigration: This variable is subject to considerable uncertainty due to considerable fluctuations and the unpredictability of migrations.

3.2 Sources of inaccuracy
The uncertainty concerning the future number of live births, deaths, immigration and emigration - as a result of unexpected changes in the assumptions of the projection about fertility, mortality and migration - must be considered as giving rise to the most significant deviations between the projection and the actual development.

Assumptions for the 2010-projection:

Total Fertility:

Long term fertility levels for all groups of origin are assumed. They are as follows:

Danish origin - Danish citizenship: 1.900
Danish origin - foreign citizenship: 1.900
Immigrants Western countries - Danish citizenship: 1.61
Immigrants Western countries - foreign citizenship: 1.77
Immigrants non-Western countries - Danish citizenship: 1.88
Immigrants non-Western countries - foreign citizenship: 1.93
Descendants from Western countries - Danish citizenship: 1.75
Descendants from Western countries - foreign citizenship: 1.75
Descendants from non-Western countries - Danish citizenship: 1.90
Descendants from non-Western countries - foreign citizenship: 1.90

In the projection the fertility will adjust to the long term levels from current levels relatively fast.

Origin at birth:

Some of the children born by immigrant- and descendant women will belong to the group of persons with Danish origin, because one of the parents belongs to this group. Therefore, the so-called frequencies of change have been calculated for immigrants and descendants based on the period 2007-2009. The following frequencies state the percentage of new-borns from the groups of immigrants and descendants, that will be classified in the group of persons with Danish origin.

Danish origin - Danish citizenship: 100
Danish origin - foreign citizenship: 100
Immigrants from Western countries - Danish citizenship: 77.9
Immigrants from Western countries - foreign citizenship: 55.9
Immigrants from non-Western countries - Danish citizenship: 17.3
Immigrants from non-Western countries - foreign citizenship: 26.3
Descendants from Western countries - Danish citizenship: 100
Descendants from Western countries - foreign citizenship: 65.3
Descendants from non-Western countries - Danish citizenship: 100
Descendants from non-Western countries - foreign citizenship: 35.3


Mortality:

Mortality rates are projected via the Lee Carter method. The starting point life expectancy at birth is 76.5 years for men and 80.8 for women. In 2050 the life expectancy at birth is projected to be 84.8 for men and 86.8 for women. The same assumptions for mortality have been used for all groups of origin.

Immigration:

Reimmigration rates based on the period 2007-2009 are used in the entire projection period regarding immigration for persons with Danish origin, descendants and immigrants with Danish citizenship.

Immgration for immigrants with foreign citizenship is set at 17.000 annualy for persons with Western origin and 11.000 annualy for persons with non-Western origin.

Emigration:

Emigration rates based on the period 2007-2009 are used in the entire projection period for all groups of origin.

3.3 Measures on accuracy
The population projection is deterministic and not stochastic. There is only one scenario and probabilities on different outcomes are not calculated.


4 Comparability


4.1 Comparability over Time
By comparision of the results of the projections from different years one must be aware that the assumptions change from year to year. The expectations to the future development of the population from a certain year are reflected in the assumptions of the projection from the same year.

4.2 Comparability with other Statistics
The units of the projection are identical with the units of the population statistics.

4.3 Coherence between provisional and final statistics
The published figures are definitive for the projection of the year concerned.


5 Accessibility


5.1 Forms of dissemination
News from Statistics Denmark (Nyt fra Danmarks Statistik), Statistical News (Statistiske Efterretninger), StatBank Denmark (Danmarks Statistikbank).
Annual Publications: Statistical Yearbook and Vital statistics (Befolkningens udvikling).

5.2 Basic material: Storage and usability
The annual version of the projection is stored in aggregated data sets containing information about persons by population groups, sex, one-year age groups and year of the projection.

5.3 Documentation
The projection is a result of a cooperation between Statictics Denmark and DREAM. A thorough documentation (in Danish) is available via DREAM´s website www.dreammodel.dk.

5.4 Other Information




Supplementary documentation
No supplementary documentation is available