0 Administrative Information about the Statistical Product


0.1 Name
Population projections for Denmark

0.2 Subject Area
Population and elections

0.3 Responsible Authority, Office, Person, etc.
Population and education.
Thomas Michael Nielsen, tel.: +45 39 17 33 14, e-mail: tmn@dst.dk
Dorthe Larsen, tel.: +45 39 17 33 07, e-mail: dla@dst.dk
Anita Lange, tel.: +45 39 17 33 07, e-mail: anl@dst.dk

0.4 Purpose and History
The purpose of these statistics is to project the population in Denmark by origin, sex and age.

0.5 Users and Application
Users: Local authorities, regions, ministries, organisations, international organisations, research institutions, the media, private enterprises, private individuals.

Application: Public and private planning purposes, research, market analysis, education and public debate.

0.6 Sources
Population Statistics Register.

0.7 Legal Authority to Collect Data
The Act on Statistics Denmark (Lov om Danmarks Statistik), Section 6, cf. Order no. 15 of 12 January 1972, as amended by Act no. 386 of 13 June 1990 and Act no. 1025 of 19 December 1992).

0.8 Response burden
None.

0.9 EU Regulation
No formal regulation.


1 Contents


1.1 Description of Contents
The population projection presents the size and composition of the population by sex and age, divided into five population groups. The five groups are:
1. Persons with Danish origin
2. Iimmigrants from western countries
3. Immigrants from non-western countries
4. Descendants from western countries
5. Descendants from non-western countries.
In addition to this, the movements of the population according to live births, deaths, immigration and emigration are calculated

1.2 Statistical Concepts
Population: Persons with permanent address in Denmark.

Units: Persons.

Variables: Population, live births, deaths, immigration and emigration.

The population is estimated as the number of persons as of 1 January every year.
Live births, deaths, immigration and emigration are estimated as the number of persons during the calendar year.

Statistical objective: The population units are estimated as aggregated data categorised by origin, sex, age and projection year.


2 Time


2.1 Reference Period
The reference period for the population projection is 40 to 50 years from the starting date (1 january).

2.2 Date of Publication
The projection is published annually first half of May.

2.3 Punctuality
The News from Statistics Denmark (Nyt fra Danmarks Statistik) article is published first half of May.
The Statistical News (Statistiske Efterretninger) article is published first part of June.

2.4 Frequency
Annually


3 Accuracy


3.1 Overall accuracy
Projections are subject to some uncertainty. The uncertainty mainly concerns that proportion of the population which has not been born at the beginning of the projection period. This means that the uncertainty of the projection increases with time as a larger proportion of the population is made up of persons who have not been born at the start of the projection period.

Population: The largest uncertainty attaches to the young age groups, i.e. those who have not been born at the start of the projection period (cf. uncertainty as regards live births). The size of the population in the oldest age groups is also subject to some uncertainty. For the rest of the population the projection is rather reliable.

Live births: The future number of live births is to a considerable extent decided by the presumed development of the fertility. This means that this variable is subject to considerably uncertainty due to the unpredictability of the future development in fertility.

Deaths: This variable is subject to some uncertainty.

Immigration: This variable is subject to considerable uncertainty due to considerable fluctuations and the unpredictability of migrations.

Emigration: This variable is subject to considerable uncertainty due to considerable fluctuations and the unpredictability of migrations.

3.2 Sources of inaccuracy
The uncertainty concerning the future number of live births, deaths, immigration and emigration - as a result of unexpected changes in the assumptions of the projection about fertility, mortality and migration - must be considered as giving rise to the most significant deviations between the projection and the actual development.

Assumptions for the 2008-projection:

Total Fertility:

Women with Danish origin: 1.854 in 2008 increasing to 1.900 in 2030
Immigrants western countries: 1.615 in 2008 increasing to 1.750 in 2030
Immigrants non-western countries: 1.970 in 2008 decreasing to 1.900 in 2030
Descendants from western countries: 1.571 in 2008 increasing to 1.750 in 2030
Descendants from non- western countries: 1.861 in 2008 increasing to 1.900 in 2030

Frequency of change:

Some of the children born by immigrant- and descendant women will belong to the group of persons with Danish origin, because one of the parents belongs to this group. Therefore, the so-called frequencies of change have been calculated for immigrants and descendants. These frequencies are supposed to state the percentage of new-borns from the groups of immigrants and descendants, that will be classified in the group of persons with Danish origin.

The frequencies for the 2008 projection are:

Immigrants from western countries: 64.7
Immigrants from non-western countries: 20.5
Descendants from western countries: 93.4
Descendants from non-western countries: 92.3

Mortality:

Men: An increase in the average life expectancy from 76.4 years in 2008 to 83.3 years in 2049.
Women: An increase in the average life expectancy from 80.9 years in 2008 to 86.2 years in 2049.
The same assumptions for mortality have been used for all five groups of population.

Immigration:

Persons with Danish origin: An increase from 20,100 persons in 2008 to 22,000 persons in 2030.
Immigration from western countries: 22,000 persons during the whole projection period.
Immigration from non-western countries: 13,000 persons during the whole projection period.
Descendants from western countries: An increase from 633 persons in 2008 to 1,000 persons in 2030.
Descendants from non-western countries: An increase from 1,330 persons in 2007 to 2,000 persons in 2030.

Frequency of emigration:

The frequencies are based on an average for the four year period 2004-2007 and are incearsed by 0.5 percent per year until 2030.

3.3 Measures on accuracy
Population: The deviations between the projection and the actual number of inhabitants were on average 0.1 per cent for the 2007 projection - measured as the deviations from the whole population in the first projection year.

The age-specific deviations are greater, especially among young age groups who have not been born at the starting time of the projection.


4 Comparability


4.1 Comparability over Time
By comparision of the results of the projections from different years one must be aware that the same model of projection is being used from year to year, but the assumptions change from year to year. The expectations to the future development of the population from a certain year are reflected in the assumptions of the projection from the same year.

4.2 Comparability with other Statistics
The units of the projection are identical with the units of the population statistics.

4.3 Coherence between provisional and final statistics
The published figures are definitive for the projection of the year concerned.


5 Accessibility


5.1 Forms of dissemination
News from Statistics Denmark (Nyt fra Danmarks Statistik), Statistical News (Statistiske Efterretninger), StatBank Denmark (Danmarks Statistikbank).
Annual Publications: Statistical Yearbook and Vital statistics (Befolkningens udvikling).

5.2 Basic material: Storage and usability
The annual version of the projection is stored in aggregated data sets containing information about persons by population groups, sex, one-year age groups and year of the projection.

5.3 Documentation
Model and methods of the projecion are described in Statistical Investigations no. 36 - Population Forecasts 1977-2000, and Vital Statistics (Befolkningens Bevægelser).

5.4 Other Information




Supplementary documentation
No supplementary documentation is available